You're giving Putin an unearned compliment by saying he has already won this war. Everything that I read and see from the more or less independent sources, including Russian, Ukrainian and European, suggest otherwise. He thought they would occupy Kyiv in 36 hours tops — it's the 13th day of the war, the only city that they managed to get is Kherson. He thought Ukrainian people would meet Russian soldiers with flowers in their hands — instead, they rally occupied cities to show they don't want them there. Putin is likely very furious and blames everyone around him for such a disastrous "military operation".

Russia is full of corruption. Putin's inner circle is addicted to money and they aren't crazy. Their kids live all over Europe and now they're losing everything they had. The anger against Putin and his decision will be growing more and more while the west continues to impose sanctions. This has to have an effect on people in the government of Russia.

People in the west seem to overestimate the mastermind of the ruling class in Russia — it's way more chaotic and negligent.

For god’s sake, HE DOESN’T EVEN KNOW HOW TO USE THE INTERNET.